000 AXNT20 KNHC 292330 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAR 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL AT THE EQUATOR AND 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 35W-49W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 35W-49W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER BRAZIL FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 50W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 29/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS NOW MOVED OVER THE W ATLC LEAVING IN ITS WAKE A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND ERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WRN GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N95W MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE ERN GULF ALONG 85W...SUPPORTING THE FRONT NOW IN THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BUILD ACROSS THE NRN GULF N OF 26N WITH A SMALL E-W SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 22N-26N SUPPORTING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 29/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ACROSS W CENTRAL CUBA...E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH...TO BELIZE ALONG 23N80W 20N84W 18N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT ALONG 21N80W TO 16N84W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN UNDER GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE FAR SW BASIN OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA WITH STRONGER SHOWERS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CONTINUE MOVING E INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. AS OF 29/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS MOVED OVER THE W ATLC WATERS ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N76W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W TO W CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LIES E OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-76W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT TO 67W. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES NEAR 48N51W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 36N48W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N42W ALONG 26N46W 22N53W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NEAR 22N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND N OF 24N BETWEEN 37W-42W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 37N47W WITH AXIS ALONG 47W. ACROSS THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 28W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DUST EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 43W...WITH LESS DENSE AMOUNTS OF DUST EXTENDING TO 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON