000 AXNT20 KNHC 291746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAR 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13N 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 35W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 29/1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO FORT MYERS AND INTO THE SE GULF ALONG 27N82W TO 21N87W AND INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO KEY WEST TO WESTERN CUBA THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM OVER GEORGIA TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 22N WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CANCUN TO VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS AREA OF THE NW CARIBBEAN IS LOCATED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA EXTENDING NE INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND VERY DRY STABLE AIR. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL STABILITY IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION E OF 82W. HOWEVER... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE DUE TO THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A WESTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS AND SUPPORTS A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 72W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM THE LOW TO 30N78W TO DELRAY BEACH FLORIDA AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVER THE AREA S OF 24N W OF 80W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS INFLUENCE BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 61W TO 23N61W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N43W AND EXTENDS SW TO 23N53W BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 21N60W TO 22N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 23N W OF 35W TO THE COLD FRONT. S OF 23N...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N48W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE LOW TO 23N52W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N30W. ALSO OF NOTE...VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC S OF A LINE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 20N40W TO EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN