000 AXNT20 KNHC 290551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAR 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 1N28W TO INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SMALL SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR 3N E OF 13W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 29/0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ENTERING NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ALONG 25N86W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W TO NE GUATEMALA. A SURFACE TROUGH/SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIA PENINSULA BETWEEN VERO BEACH AND NAPLES TO 24N83W. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH/SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE GULF E OF A LINE FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 23N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 225 NM W OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 25N W OF 94W. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT IS MOVING NE OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS COVERING THE GULF N OF 27N. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ZONAL UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF S OF 26N WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT S OF 23N. SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA... SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. ZONAL UPPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN. THUS..FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS BEING USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS MAINLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 69W. THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 29/0300 UTC...A SQUALL LINE/SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 28N79W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR VERO BEACH. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH/SQUALL LINE. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 0545 UTC INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE E COAST OF THE US FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO S FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY PRECEDES THE FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N53W TO 21N65W WHERE IT DISSIPATES JUST TO THE N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 22N72W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N52W TO 17N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL TO THE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 23N50W TO BEYOND 32N43W AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS N OF 23N FROM 42W-65W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 15N W OF 45W WITH A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N35W. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DUST COMING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 19N34W TO 15N48W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE