000 AXNT20 KNHC 281118 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N7W 3N18W 3N38W TO INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ W OF 43W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 5W-13W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 28/0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ENTERING JUST W OF VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA EXTENDING ALONG 27N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR THE BORDER OF TEXAS. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N92W TO 29N89W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND N OF 28N BETWEEN APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA AND NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NE ARKANSAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERED THE E GULF OF MEXICO IS RETREATING EASTWARD AND ONLY COVERS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. NEAR ZONAL UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF S OF 23N WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ZONAL UPPER WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN. THUS..FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEING USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W EXTENDING SW ALONG 23N66W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO OVER THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 22N74W. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N59W TO 28N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/90 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45/60 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS N OF 26N FROM 51W-66W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL/TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 24N53W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 21N52W TO 19N51W WITH NO ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N24W EXTENDING SW TO 27N29W WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF THE REGION. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS N OF 26N FROM 16W-30W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 17N W OF 50W WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N40W AND A 1021 MB HIGH IS IN THE NE ATLC OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DUST COMING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING TO 35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE