000 AXNT20 KNHC 271757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 32W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SE GULF ALONG 24N80W TO 22N89W AND INLAND OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 83W-89W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE W ATLC E OF 70W. ALOFT...ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERING MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR TAMPICO. MAINLY SE TO S WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF AROUND THE RIDGE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS BY LATE SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. THIS IS RESULTING IN OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IN THE W ATLC TO NORTHERN HAITI NEAR 20N73W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE COUPLED WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N64W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N77W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BECOMING STATIONARY INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 27N...AND E OF 55W TO THE FRONT N OF 27N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 36N64W TO 26N76W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN HAITI NEAR 20N73W TO THE COLD FRONT NEAR 27N70W. FARTHER EAST....A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N48W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 16N46W THROUGH THE LOW TO 23N51W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 42W-54W. THIS FEATURES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N47W. A WEAKNESS ALSO EXISTS WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N31W TO 27N37W WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 21N36W TO 28N33W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH N OF 21N BETWEEN 29W-35W. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC E OF 28W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 40N9W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN