000
AXNT20 KNHC 251743
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT THU MAR 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N18W 2N23W 1N27W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N ALONG 25W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 
5W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 16W-22W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 
3N BETWEEN 23W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N 
BETWEEN 31W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS UPPER 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION OF THE 
SRN U.S. PLAINS THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE 
NW GULF WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W AND 
EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N95W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W. A 
INTENSE SQUALL LINE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS IS E 
OF THE COLD FRONT AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA 
ALONG A LINE FROM 30N88W TO 27N91W. ALSO A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SQUALL LINE 
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY 
200 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND 
WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO ENHANCING 
THE ONGOING CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED 
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE FRONT 
APPROACHES WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED MIDDLE TO HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS AS OVERALL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE EASTERN 
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS MUCH OF THE 
CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N89W WITH AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NE ACROSS 
JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS 
PROVIDING FOR VERY STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE BASIN INHIBITING 
ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AREAS 
OF ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 
19N-22N BETWEEN 81W-86W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... 
AS WELL AS PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN 
AS A RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE TO 
THE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE W ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE 
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N70W 
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO BEYOND 32N75W. A COLD FRONT 
ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W EXTENDING SW TO 25N62W AND 
BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N70W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT N 
OF 30N WHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE FRONT S OF 30N. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 25N 
TO BEYOND 32N ALONG 50W SUPPORT THIS FRONT AS IT HAS CONTINUED 
TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED SE OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 20N47W TO 26N51W. 
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS 
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 31N33W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA GENERALLY FAIR 
WEATHER. VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A 
FAIR AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC S OF 
A LINE FROM 21N17W TO 14N40W TO 15N60W NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN