000 AXNT20 KNHC 251028 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAR 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N17W 1N27W 1N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 15W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 13W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR NW GULF. A UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING FROM ACROSS TEXAS TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE FAR NW GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE BORDER OF TEXAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER TEXAS FROM JUST W OF HOUSTON TO LAREDO THEN OVER THE FAR NE MEXICO AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF BEFORE 1200 UTC. AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE NW GULF OVER OVER GALVESTON BAY TEXAS ALONG 27N96W BACK INLAND OVER S TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM A LINE BETWEEN ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA TO 26N95W W TO THE COLD FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE ALOFT COVERS THE SE GULF GIVING THAT AREA FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDING AN AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 17N W OF 70W TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND IN THE FAR E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N E OF 64W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NEAR 30N75W AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA TO BEYOND 32N75W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N61W TO 23N68W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CONTINUES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO NEAR 21N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N52W TO BEYOND 32N46W AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 48W-61W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N34W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE