000 AXNT20 KNHC 241746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAR 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N14W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W AND THEN ALONG 1S TO 40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 10W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 40W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W. MOST SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF W OF 86W AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. MOIST SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N90W AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NE MEXICO AND THE NW GULF WATERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED EMBEDDED SHOWERS W OF 95W...WHILE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE RESULTING DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY THURSDAY USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT WEST OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES EASTERN CUBA AND ENTERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO 19N80W. EASTERLY TRADES HAVE BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N90W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD ALONG 15N TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH NW TO N STABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESIDING OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. OVERALL THIS IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N60W EXTENDING SW TO 24N70W AND BECOMES A DIFFUSE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 26N WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE FRONT WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 32N62W TO 25N69W. BEHIND THE FRONT...A SURFACE RIDGE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING IN ACROSS THE W ATLC AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 31N84W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES AS A 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N41W DRIFTS E-SE. AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE...NE TO E WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ATLC E OF 55W AS INDICATED ON EARLIER MORNING WINDSAT AND ASCAT PASSES. ALSO OF NOTE...A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC S OF A LINE FROM 20N16W TO 15N35W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N60W AS OBSERVED ON METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SELECT FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA ARE ALSO REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND BLOWING DUST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN