000
AXNT20 KNHC 231746
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N08W 1N35W 2N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N IS ALONG 50W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1S TO 5N BETWEEN 45W-52W. 
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 
2N BETWEEN 16W-22W AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 28W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 25N90W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE ALONG WITH AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 97W IS PROVIDING FOR SUBSIDENCE AND 
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA 
PENINSULA. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 21N78W 17N82W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA 
NEAR 12N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE 
FRONT...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA...THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS...AND EASTERN NICARAGUA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY 
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EAST 
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE 
CONFIRMED ON AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS AROUND 23/1108 UTC S OF 15N 
BETWEEN 71W-78W. ALOFT...THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE E PACIFIC NEAR 12N95W. THE RIDGE 
EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS NICARAGUA TO PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE 
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE NOTED ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN AND ARE RESULTING IN 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENT AREAS OF TRADEWINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS...NOTABLY WITHIN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN 
HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 68W-73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N69W AND EXTENDS S-SW 
ALONG 26N71W TO THE SE BAHAMAS...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 
22N76W AS IT BEGINS TO CROSS EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. S 
OF 24N...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS MUCH OF 
CENTRAL CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE EASTERN U.S. 
SEABOARD WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG 72W SUPPORTS THE 
FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 
32N74W TO 26N79W WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS 
OBSERVED ON AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS AROUND 23/1102 UTC LOCATED 
WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS 
THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 32N22W AND EXTENDS SW TO 26N30W THEN 
DISSIPATING TO 22N40W. A SHEAR LINE IS THEN ANALYZED FROM 22N40W 
TO 20N56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHILE EARLIER WINDSAT AND ASCAT PASSES 
DEPICTED STRONGER NE WINDS BEHIND THE SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL ATLC. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN