000 AXNT20 KNHC 221751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAR 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 23W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 22/1500 UTC...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING QUICKLY NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWS BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND IS ANALYZED FROM NE FLORIDA ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 28N84W IN THE NE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W WITH STRONGER W TO NW WINDS OBSERVED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE AND AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG 88W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND SUBSIDENT NW FLOW WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 20N95W. THE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS A MAJORITY OF THE GULF RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR SKIES W OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N80W AND CONTINUES ALONG 19N83W TO NORTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W THEN INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING CENTRAL CUBA...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HONDURAS N OF 15N. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS ALONG 88W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER GUATEMALA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N77W. THE CIRCULATION EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC TO BEYOND BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW QUICK MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 64W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N77W AND EXTENDS S-SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE W ATLC N OF 22N E OF 73W. THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS WELL NORTH OF 32N ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD TO THE MID-ATLC STATES. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N31W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 27N37W TO 24N47W BECOMING A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER...N OF 25N BETWEEN 42W-70W AND SE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN