000
AXNT20 KNHC 212346
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 2N35W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 18W-21W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 32W-37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 30N83W 26N83W 20N87W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO W CUBA MOVING E.  
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N W OF FRONT TO 94W. ELSEWHERE...A 
1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W. 
30 KT WINDS AND OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED S OF THE HIGH. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH 
AXIS ALONG 93W. VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE 
AREA EXCEPT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SURROUNDING WATERS. EXPECT 
IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE W ATLANTIC 
NEAR 32N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH CONVECTION. THE GULF WILL HAVE 
RESIDUAL 20-25 KT NW SURFACE FLOW WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION 
AND FAIR WEATHER. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO BELIZE MOVING E. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...RAIN 
AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...EASTERLY WINDS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA 
RICA PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND CONVECTION INLAND OVER 
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA 
NEAR 9N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N 
COLOMBIA FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 72W-75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 13N77W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
ARE NOTED. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND 
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E NICARAGUA WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N39W TO 25N50W. 
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO 24N60W 23N70W. RAIN AND 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONTS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N21W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 45W. 
ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N E OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 5N43W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
FLOW IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 35W-50W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE W 
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH 
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO 
MOVE E TO 32N30W WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA