000 AXNT20 KNHC 211043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 6N13W 5N19W 2N28W 1N41W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 850W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 9W-16W INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE IVORY COAST FROM 5W-7W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 18W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OFF MISSISSIPPI ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA ALONG 25N90W 21N94W INTO MEXICO JUST E OF VERACRUZ WITH A STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM MOBILE ALABAMA ALONG 25N88W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA JUST E OF MERIDA TO NW CORNER OF GUATEMALA. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM W OF AND 180 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA TO OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA AND BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE FRONT. NORTHERLY SURFACE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CENTERED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER NE TEXAS AND EXTENDS S OVER MOST OF THE GULF W OF 83W. THIS IS ENHANCING A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT ACROSS THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO TO FORT MYERS FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE AREA W OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER... OVERCAST LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF TODAY AND EXITING THE AREA TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM OVER NW HAITI EXTENDING ACROSS W JAMAICA TO NEAR 17N81W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BANK LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA MAINLY S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N34W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 140 KT IS N OF A LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH ALONG 30N67W TO 26N42W. A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES MUCH OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING IT. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N44W EXTENDING SW TO 24N60W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO JUST N OF HAITI NEAR 21N71W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N63W TO BEYOND 32N45W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1020 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 30N69W. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 24N48W. OTHERWISE... THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE