000 AXNT20 KNHC 201746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N23W 4N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N E OF 07W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS FROM 2N-8N ALONG 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 19W-28W. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 103W AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS WITH A STRONG SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS APPROACHING THE TEXAS GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE FORECAST...THEN AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE NW GULF WATERS...NW WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY SE WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 30N77W. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE GULF AND LOCATES OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND CONTINUES ALONG 18N74W 15N78W TO 10N79W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING MOST OF HAITI...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AS CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE THUS SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CUBA TO ACROSS HONDURAS AND IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR SKIES UNDER 15-20 KT E-SE WINDS. ELSEWHERE...E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FAIR SKIES ALSO PREVAIL WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 30N77W. ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N69W TO 30N75W. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE. FARTHER EAST HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 36N61W TO 29N71W. IT SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N53W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N54W TO 25N60W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE SE BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 47W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND BEYOND 32N41W. THIS SUPPORTS A STRONG 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N31W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM WEST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 36N15W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS FROM 28N15W TO BEYOND 32N13W WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN