000
AXNT20 KNHC 201043
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N21W 2N30W ALONG THE EQUATOR 
WEST OF 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM S OF THE EQUATOR 
TO JUST INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 18W-26W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC 
TO OVER E GULF. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO 
THE W ATLC COVERING THE FAR E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF HAZE AND FOG ARE 
OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. 
OTHERWISE THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE 
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF 
THE TEXAS COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG TO GALE FORCE 
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE NW GULF WATERS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DISSIPATING AS IT 
ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER S HAITI NEAR 19N72W CONTINUING S TO 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE 
FRONT TO A LINE FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 
14N84W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
ACROSS THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC TO OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN BRINGING DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT TO THE AREA W OF A LINE 
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER 
N/CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND W TROPICAL 
ATLC. THUS CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE FAR E GULF OF 
MEXICO EXTENDING FROM A 1019 MB HIGH JUST NE OF THE N BAHAMA 
ISLANDS NEAR 28N76W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E GULF 
OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH 
APPROACHING BERMUDA SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1013 MB LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 32N70W MOVING DRIFTING E. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N56W ALONG 
25N61W TO 21N67W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER HISPANIOLA 
DISSIPATING BEFORE IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 200/250 NM W OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE 
FRONT N OF 24N. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE 
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE N 
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO BEYOND 32N42W WITH A SURFACE 
RIDGE TO THE E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 
32N36W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 25W TO 
THE COAST OF W AFRICA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE