000
AXNT20 KNHC 191741
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER HAITI AND EXTENDS S 
TO PANAMA ALONG 20N72W 15N77W 10N79W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND 
RAIN ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 16N TO 
BEYOND 22N BETWEEN 70W-75W. RAIN MAY BE HEAVIER OVER HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE SAME AREA FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.  

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N22W 2N30W 1N44W EQ50W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST 
AFRICA FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 3W-5W...FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 
8W-11W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 14W-20W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N88W PRODUCING LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC 
SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE 
HOWEVER ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS AND MEXICO FROM 20N-26N 
BETWEEN 96W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
GULF WITH A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM N OF 25N. VERY STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE AREA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS 
FOR...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E TO N FLORIDA WITH CONTINUED 
FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT AND BE FROM 
THE SE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS 
COAST TOMORROW EVENING WITH RAIN. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER HAITI AND EXTENDS S 
TO PANAMA ALONG 20N72W 15N77W 10N79W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND 
RAIN ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 16N TO 
BEYOND 22N BETWEEN 70W-75W. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALONG THE COASTS 
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS BETWEEN 81W-84W. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N 
COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW 
CENTER TO S OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 13N74W 17N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ARE OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 
8N-13N BETWEEN 67W-74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. 
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S 
OF 14N. EXPECT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION 
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N63W TO 25N68W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO HAITI NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 
59W-64W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. A 1026 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N42W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N19W 
23N30W 20N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT E 
OF 30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
W ATLANTIC W OF 65W. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N E OF 65W TO W AFRICA.
A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N27W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 
50W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE 
E TO 32N49W IN 24 HOURS...AND FOR THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E 
TO THE CANARY ISLANDS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA