000 AXNT20 KNHC 190536 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE SURFACE TROUGH ALTHOUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BUT THE LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATED ZONAL EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THAT AREA. SURFACE TROUGH AT 0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 18N72W TO 12N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 70W-74W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N3W 3N10W 4N19W 4N19W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR W OF 41W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 10W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 27W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE SE US AND THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVING INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 27N W OF 87W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND W GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 24N94W AND A WEAKER 1017 MB HIGH OVER N LOUISIANA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF AND WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY SAT MORNING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AT 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N75W EXTENDING ACROSS JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 18N ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BRINGING DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER NE VENEZUELA AND EXTENDS INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 40W AND N OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE SE US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A 1003 MB LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION AT 0300 UTC NEAR 32N65W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N70W ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA NEAR 20N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM W OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT AT 0300 UTC EXTENDING FROM 31N72W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE TROUGH TO OVER THE SE US. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N60W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR 31N50W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 17W-40W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N20W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N30W TO 21N43W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BISECTED BY THIS FRONT WITH A 1021 MB HIGH N OF THE FRONT NEAR 26N52W AND A 1022 MB HIGH TO THE N NEAR 33N46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE