000 AXNT20 KNHC 171748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAR 17 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 2N40W EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 20W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N84W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN OVER THE NE GULF... N FLORIDA...S FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING E. ELSEWHERE... A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 26N103W. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE W GULF IS PRODUCING 20-25 NORTHERLY WINDS W OF 94W. THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALSO HAS OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS S OF 21N WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 32N84W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM N OF 20N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL WITH 10-15 KT NW SURFACE FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH SHOWERS N OF THE ISLAND. THE TAIL END OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH REACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 19N60W 18N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 73W-76W. ELSEWHERE... BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE NW CARIBBEAN... AND W CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE AREA WITH 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE AREA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND OVER PANAMA AND N COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO 27N50W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N30W TO 27N40W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N50W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALL THREE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING E WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 30W-40W...AND FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 22W-27W. FURTHER EAST... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 16N45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND W ATLANTIC W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO MERGE AND MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA