000
AXNT20 KNHC 161717
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W 2S45W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-EQ BETWEEN 25W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO FROM 28N95W TO 24N95 TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. 
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE TEXAS AND 
THE W GULF N OF 25N W OF 93W. THE A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE 
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM LOUISIANA TO W CUBA. 10 KT 
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE 
E GULF E OF THE RIDGE AXIS. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND TEXAS. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE 
GULF WITH A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER 
THE W GULF W OF 87W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...A THE SURFACE 
TROUGH TO BE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH 
RAIN AND SHOWERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC WITH SHOWERS N OF THE ISLAND. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST 
OF N HONDURAS WHERE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
NOTED. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE 
AREA WITH 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING MOSTLY ZONAL 
FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTION. EXPECT...RAIN AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA AND ELSEWHERE OVER N COLOMBIA AND N VENEZUELA W OF 65W 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N43W TO N OF 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 32N43W 27N50W 23N60W. A STATIONARY 
FRONT CONTINUES TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE FRONT FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 
32W-41W. FURTHER EAST A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N23W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND W ATLANTIC W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 40W. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 
32N35W TO 23N58W WITH CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA