000 AXNT20 KNHC 152351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAR 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N30W 2N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 8W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 23W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST TO OVER CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATING THE BASIN THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS CLOUDINESS RIDES WITHIN A BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-130 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ANOTHER REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO SETTLE IN OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE GULF WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 17N76W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENING ATMOSPHERIC FORCING MECHANISM IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO BEYOND 20N60W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS AND CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND SUPPORTS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 32N. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG 25N60W TO 20N68W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 40W. A WARM FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION AND EXTENDS FROM 27N44W TO BEYOND 32N52W. THE CONVECTION PRIMARILY LOCATES ITSELF EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND UNDER AN AREA OF GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RESIDES ALONG 40W. FARTHER EAST...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND IS ANALYZED FROM 32N20W TO 27N21W TO 22N26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN