000
AXNT20 KNHC 151748
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT MON MAR 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N25W 3N51W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 8W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM 
LOUISIANA TO W CUBA. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WITH MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD 
RIDGE IS PRODUCING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH A 110-130 KT 
JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF N OF 22N. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE W GULF 
AND A 1012 MB LOW TO BE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH RAIN AND 
SHOWERS.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 
WITH SHOWERS N OF THE ISLAND. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE AREA WITH 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH AXIS ALONG 13N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.   
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N57W TO THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC ALONG 32N57W 28N59W 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO 
E OF THE FRONT FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 47W-57W. FURTHER EAST A 1022 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N34W. A 
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N20W 21N28W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 55W.  
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND 
FROM 32N40W TO 24N58W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE E 
ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE TO THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA