000
AXNT20 KNHC 150521
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT MON MAR 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W TO 2N30W
TO 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN 
COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 5W AND 14W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE WEST OF 60W...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. TO THE NORTH OF 30N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 116W. A CYCLONIC CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN NEW MEXICO NOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 300 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N114W 22N106W 25N97W...TO 27N90W IN THE GULF 
OF MEXICO...ACROSS 28N81W IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN. THE FLOW IN THIS MOISTURE BAND IS SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS ALL OF MEXICO...BECOMING 
ANTICYCLONIC AS THE FLOW ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND 
REMAINING ANTICYCLONIC ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS TO 60W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FLOW IS CYCLONIC TO THE NORTH OF 28N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 112W IN MEXICO...AND TO THE NORTH OF 30W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND
100W. THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 26N64W
TO 22N70W...BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 28N71W TO 26N76W.
A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF CLOUDS IS MOVING EASTWARD BEHIND THE 
TROUGH. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY 
FRONT...AROUND A 1015 MB YUCATAN PENINSULA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 26N91W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 65W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 22N70W JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN 
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE FRONT BECOMES 
STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES TO JAMAICA...16N80W...AND TO 
COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. BROAD SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA.
 
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA 
ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 10N45W. THE TROUGH IS EVEN SOMEWHAT 
INDISTINCT IN MOST PLACES TO THE SOUTH OF 20N SIMPLY BECAUSE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 
10N60W 10N40W BEYOND 24N17W BLOCKS THE TOTAL VIEW OF THE TROUGH
IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 27N24W TO 22N28W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
NEAR THE COLD FRONT BUT NOT READILY APPARENT FROM SATELLITE 
IMAGERY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT