000
AXNT20 KNHC 142354
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N26W 2N38W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 46W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
20W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A 1015 MB HIGH 
IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
IS LOCATED OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY 
E-NE PROVIDING THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH BRISK WEST 
WINDS THIS EVENING. AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXITS 
TO THE NE...MAINLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE AND EXTENDS S-SW TO JAMAICA THEN TO 16N79W WHERE IT 
BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 
11N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT ACROSS 
JAMAICA AND WITHIN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AS WELL AS WITHIN 120 
NM NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN 79W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWESTERLY 
UPPER LEVEL WIND REGIME PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY 
STABLE AIR. THIS IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR 
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LOW PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE W ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W AND CONTINUING SE ALONG 
25N68W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS WEST 
OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT AND IS ANALYZED FROM 32N69W TO THE NW 
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS 14/1524 UTC DEPICTED 
STRONGER WINDS UP TO 30 KT WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVER THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 
50W. THIS AREA N OF 25N IS BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD AREA OF 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AS AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 47W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO 
SUPPORTS A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N39W. FARTHER EAST...A 
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 32N21W 20N28W TO 
14N38W. IT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE NE ATLC WATERS 
NEAR 32N23W TO 22N30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN