000
AXNT20 KNHC 131714
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N30W 3N40W EQ50W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 13W-17W... 
AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 33W-40W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
23N93W. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE 
AREA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE NE 
GULF...FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE 20-25 KT 
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW 
PREVAILS WITH A 130-150 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT...THE SURFACE 
HIGH TO DOMINATE THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAIR 
WEATHER.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA 
ALONG 23N78W 18N81W 12N83W. NW WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WHILE S 
WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL CUBA 
ALONG THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE N COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-17N 
BETWEEN 84W-89W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 13N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E AND EXTEND 
FROM E CUBA TO COSTA RICA WITH SHOWERS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA 
NEAR 23N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. 
PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE E OF THE 
FRONT FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 65W-74W. FURTHER EAST A 1023 MB HIGH 
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N51W. A STATIONARY 
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N29W 18N43W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 29W-33W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 
30W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND 
FROM 32N63W TO E CUBA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE E 
ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E AGAIN TO 32N23W WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA