000
AXNT20 KNHC 130524
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SAT MAR 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 4N30W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND 
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 6N40W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 
3N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND 
AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A COLD 
FRONT ENTERING THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 
TALLAHASSEE S ALONG 25N85W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE 
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N86W. FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER 
TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING 
THE GULF N OF 22N. MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE FRONT IS IN THE W ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 150 KT COVERS THE 
GULF N OF 21N. SKIES ARE CLEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF FOG OVER THE SW 
GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN 
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W EXTENDING TO THE BORDER 
OF HONDURAS/GUATEMALA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 86W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A 
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ISLE OF YOUTH OFF 
THE COAST OF CUBA TO E HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 68W TO OVER THE ISLANDS 
FROM DOMINICA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO. DRY STABLE 
AIR ARE GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FAIR WEATHER AGAIN 
TONIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FAR W ATLC WITH THE APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 29N71W TO INTO THE 
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH 
600 NM E OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N53W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM 35W-60W SUPPORTING A 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N28W ALONG 21N40W 
TO 16N54W WHERE IT DISSIPATES E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 
15N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE 
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC EXTENDING OVER CANARY 
ISLANDS TO W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N32W.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE