000
AXNT20 KNHC 121144
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N24W 1N32W ACROSS THE EQUATOR 
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 51W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A COLD 
FRONT ENTERING THE GULF FROM A 1004 MB LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH 
CAROLINA COAST ACROSS FLORIDA S OF JACKSONVILLE TO NEAR CEDAR 
KEY TO 29N85W WHERE A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO A 998 
MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W AND A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW ALONG 21N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO S OF TUXPAN. 
THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED 
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND INCLUDES THE NW GULF. AN UPPER 
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC 
AND CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE 
GULF FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-29N E OF 89W TO 
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 26N89W 
TO OVER MEXICO NEAR NEAR TAMPICO. AT 0600 UTC...A SECOND FAST 
MOVING COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF EXTENDING ACROSS 
VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE THEN 
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO INLAND NEAR 23N98W AND AT 0900 UTC 
ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ALONG 25N95W TO 
INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THIS 
COLD FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM A 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER DOMINICA 
ALONG 15N66W TO 17N71W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF SURFACE TROUGH 
TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO 
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH DRY STABLE AIR ARE GIVING 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH 
ENE OF BERMUDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N 
OF 27N W OF 73W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR W 
ATLC S OF 27N W OF 76W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE W AND INTO CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM 40W-65W SUPPORTING 
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N31W ALONG 21N40W TO 
16N52W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS NEAR 15N60W THEN BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NE 
CARIBBEAN ACROSS DOMINICA. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO 30N W OF 
THE FRONT TO 47W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT CONTINUING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 
INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC WITH A 1020 MB HIGH SW OF THE CANARY 
ISLANDS NEAR 20N17W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE E ATLC. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE