000
AXNT20 KNHC 120536
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N22W 1N38W ACROSS THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. ISOLATED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-23W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A COLD 
FRONT ENTERING THE GULF FROM A 1004 MB LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE 
FLORIDA ACROSS TO CEDAR KEY TO 28N88W AND AN ADDITIONAL 1000 MB 
LOW OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N94W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 
SSE TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W. THIS SCENARIO IS 
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE 
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND INCLUDES THE NW GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC AND 
CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF 
FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM TAMPICO 
MEXICO TO ACROSS THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CEDAR KEY AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
26.5N E OF 85W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM A 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS NOW E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERING 
THE AREA N OF 15N E OF 67W TO OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN 
ISLANDS. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH DRY STABLE AIR 
ARE GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH 
ENE OF BERMUDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 90 NM OF 27N W OF 75W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND 
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 
74W ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND LOW OVER THE SE US AND IN THE 
NE GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE W AND INTO CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 40W-65W SUPPORTING A 
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N32W ALONG 26N37W TO 
21N44W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 350 NM NW OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 20N-30N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING TO OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE 
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC EXTENDING S ALONG 22W TO 20N 
KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE