000
AXNT20 KNHC 112348
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR ALONG 28W TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 14W-17W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1000 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 26N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. ANOTHER 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W. A SMALL COLD FRONT EXTENDS W FROM 
THIS LOW CENTER TO 28N90W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER 
THE GULF N OF 25N. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA AND SURROUNDING 
WATERS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 78W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL 
FLOW PREVAILS WITH A 130-150 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF 
24N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR THE 1000 MB LOW TO MOVE E TO THE W 
OF TAMPA FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND S FROM THE LOW TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE 1004 MB LOW 
TO MOVE NE TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL 
EXTEND S FROM THIS LOW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS FROM 17N60W TO 16N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 
NM N OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-19N E 
OF 67W. ELSEWHERE...OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH RAIN IS 
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND N VENEZUELA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 
67W-78W. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WINDS ARE FROM 
THE NE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...FROM THE E OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN...AND FROM THE SE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING W TO NW 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 12N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS...FOR MORE SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND OVER 
PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N61W. A 
1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N35W. A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N40W 19N50W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 17N60W. 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF 
THE FRONTS. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 
28N26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE WARM FRONT 
FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 30W-35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
FROM 30N10W TO 26N20W 28N26W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 35W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 35W. EXPECT...THE ATLANTIC SURFACE 
LOW TO MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO NEAR 34N32W WITH 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 18N50W WITH SHOWERS.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA