000
AXNT20 KNHC 101804
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST WED MAR 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 4N20W TO 2N30W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 
2S50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 7W AND 16W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 16W AND 36W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
TEXAS PANHANDLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE 
NORTH OF 26N. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 93W. A COLD 
FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT 
EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF COAST DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS/MEXICO 
BORDER ABOUT 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO 
MEXICO NEAR 24N100W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
OF MEXICO TOWARD NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 16N67W 
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL 
NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. 
UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM 16N71W EASTWARD ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. A SEPARATE STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA...FROM VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. 
THIS WIND REGIME IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN NEAR 18N58W...THROUGH THE GUADELOUPE CHANNEL TO 16N64W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 16N64W TO 15N70W AND 13N75W.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
20N60W 17N66W 15N72W 13N77W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N57W TO 16N67W 
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW 
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 43W AND 
80W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS STRETCHED FROM THE EASTERN 
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 
FEW DAYS HAS UNDERGONE A CHANGE IN STRUCTURE. A 1015 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 29N45W. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 30N26W TO 27N36W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N36W
TO THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 24N46W AND 21N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 21N50W BEYOND 17N60W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N23W 28N40W
23N53W 18N63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT