000
AXNT20 KNHC 101131
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N2W 5N10W 3N24W ACROSS THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 1W-26W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF 
SW AFRICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED E OUT OF THE GULF TO OVER THE W 
ATLC ONLY COVERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS LOWER PRESSURE 
MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE GULF. THE WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONTAL 
SYSTEM REMAINS INLAND NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A 
SECOND COLD FRONT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES 
AND WILL ENTER THE GULF LATER TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE UPPER 
TROUGH HAS MOVED NE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXITING 
THE GULF WATERS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED IN 
THE E PACIFIC TO OVER TEXAS AND CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 24N 
E OF 92W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. SE TO S SURFACE WINDS 
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING 
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY 
INLAND OVER THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS IN THE GULF 
WATERS N OF 28N FROM APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA TO MOBILE ALABAMA. 
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 91W TO INLAND 
OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
ENTER THE NW GULF LATER TONIGHT WITH A SECOND REINFORCING FRONT 
MOVING INTO THE NW GULF THU MORNING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS 
THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 16N65W 
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO 14N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT 
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN S 
OF 15N E OF 66W AND THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES PREVAIL. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 
29N70W AND EXTENDS W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PROVIDING THE 
AREA WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BAND OF 
ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE WEAK UPPER FLOW EXTENDING 
WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 26N68W TO 24N80W THEN OVER THE 
FLORIDA KEYS. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL 
ATLC N OF 25N FROM 45W-65W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS 
THE E ATLC NEAR 32N27W EXTENDING TO 28N34W BECOMING STATIONARY 
AND CONTINUING ALONG 22N47W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE N 
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. 
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED W OF THE FRONT EXTENDING 
THROUGH 32N52W TO 23N57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS 
DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH WSW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N24W 
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 10N42W WHICH IS KEEPING 
CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE AREA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE