000 AXNT20 KNHC 100552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N3W 3N21W 2N40W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF 25W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES SHIFT E COVERING ONLY THE FAR E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS LOWER PRESSURE MAINTAINS OVER THE W GULF. THE WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS INLAND MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E AS A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INCLUDING THE NE GULF. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE SW GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC TO OVER MEXICO WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING TO OVER TEXAS. BOTH UPPER RIDGES CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF FROM THE E PACIFIC AND IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF 25N E OF 88W ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. SE TO S SURFACE WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND OVER THE SE US AND OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 28N FROM APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WED NIGHT WITH A SECOND REINFORCING FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT AND MOVE SE OUT OF THE GULF LATE FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN OVER THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 17N65W WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR 14N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT/SHEAR AXIS E OF 68W AND WITHIN 150 NM NW W OF 68W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-81W WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N73W AND EXTENDS W TO OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING THE AREA WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WITHIN 90 N M OF 25N E OF 74W TO OVER S FLORIDA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 40W-70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N29W EXTENDING TO 25N45W BECOMING STATIONARY CONTINUING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NW OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N58W TO 26N55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N26W AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 11N42W WHICH IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE