000
AXNT20 KNHC 091134
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST TUE MAR 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N21W 2N31W 2N40W ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF 28W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES SHIFT E AS LOWER PRESSURE MOVES OVER 
THE W GULF. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS INLAND OVER 
THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE ALSO CONTINUES TO 
SHIFT E AS A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TO OVER 
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING THE NW GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE 
CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF 
FROM THE E PACIFIC GENERATING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA. SE TO S SURFACE WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 
FROM 25N95W TO OVER THE NE GULF COAST ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR THE 
BIG BEND AREA. DENSE LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM 
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS 
OVER THE W GULF AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E AND 
THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WED EVENING WITH 
A SECOND REINFORCING FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT AND 
WILL MERGE WITH INITIAL FRONT ON FRI MOVING SE OUT OF THE GULF 
LATE FRI NIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 
THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER GUADELOUPE CONTINUING 
ALONG 14N69W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 90/120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N 
BETWEEN 35W-70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN FROM S OF HAITI NEAR 17N73W ALONG 12N77W TO THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM W OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR 
WEATHER WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND IS INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGE 
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO 
DISSIPATE BY WED NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC 
ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND NEAR 28N77W 
AND A 1017 MB HIGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N58W PROVIDING 
THE AREA GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS 
OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM 35W-70W SUPPORTING A 
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W EXTENDING ALONG 
28N41W BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 24N45W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN 
OVER GUADELOUPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED WELL BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N68W TO 
28N71W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF 
THE TROUGH N OF 31N. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED 
RIDGE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH W OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N24W AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 22N23W 
WHICH IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE AREA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE