000 AXNT20 KNHC 082322 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON MAR 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2230 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N11W ALONG 5N20W 3N30W 1N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COASTLINE NEAR 1S48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 18W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA KEEPING THE ERN GULF UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS E OF 87W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 88W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN FROM THE E PACIFIC AROUND THE WRN SIDE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE GENERATING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE ACROSS THE NW GULF ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINATION IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 24N W OF 88W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SW MISSISSIPPI AS INDICATED BY RADAR IMAGERY. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO DRIFT EWD ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND DOMINICA CONTINUING ALONG 14N66W TO THE NW VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 11N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 25 NM NW OF THE FRONT N OF 15N IMPACTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE FRONT S OF 15N. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH AXIS CONTINUING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N75W 12N77W TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 8N76W DEPICTING A LINE OF CONVERGING WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ERN PACIFIC BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY DRIFT NW BEFORE DISSIPATING WED NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO IS IMPACTING THE FAR SW N ATLC PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N42W 24N49W BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 18N56W TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG 31N48W 27N50W 24N54W. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N25W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N47W TO 23N27W TO N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON