000 AXNT20 KNHC 081754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON MAR 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N28W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 8W-14W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 17W-23W AND WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER SE ALABAMA BY A 1024 MB HIGH RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR WEATHER E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SE CONUS ALONG 90W. WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE BASIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT WITHIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR W OF 90W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 23N W OF 92W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA GULF COASTS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING SE WINDS TO SPREAD OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED. THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN TEXAS IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER GUADELOUPE NEAR 16N61W THEN SW TO ARUBA AND INTO NW VENEZUELA NEAR 11N71W. OVERRIDING MOISTURE AND CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 18N62W TO 13N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N55W TO 14N70W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. N TO NE SURFACE FLOW AND DRY STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. E TO SE SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER SE OF A LINE FROM MARTINIQUE TO NEAR BONAIRE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N43W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG 24N50W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER GUADELOUPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 24N...WHILE S OF 24N SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N50W TO 23N57W AND MORE LARGELY REFLECTS A STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE FORM OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT FARTHER EAST. THIS TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LIFT EXTENDS FROM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N62W TO BEYOND 32N49W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH AND EASTERN ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N24W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 05N52W TO BEYOND 32N25W IS PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN