000
AXNT20 KNHC 081140
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST MON MAR 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1140 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS LOCATED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 
6N11W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W TO THE 
NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ50W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ 
FROM 10W TO 35W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR 
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE 
STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE IS MARKED BY A 1022 SURFACE HIGH OVER THE 
NORTHEAST BASIN NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MARINE 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. 
THIS TYPE OF FLOW IS BANKING SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF COAST AND 
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF 
22N. LOOK FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE 
NEXT DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST BASIN BY 
WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
THROUGH THE ISLAND OF GUADELOUPE...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD 
ACROSS  THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE WESTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA 
NEAR MARACAIBO. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT...AS WELL 
AS CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. 
THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER 
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...ANGUILLA...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MARINE 
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN SHOW NORTHERLY SURFACE 
FLOW ANYWHERE WEST OF THE FRONT...AND EASTERLY FLOW ELSEWHERE 
EAST OF THE FRONT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN 
BASIN IS BANKING SOME LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG 60 NM OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN 
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT 
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS SWINGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
SUPPORTING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ENTERS THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N45W...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N48W 
20N55 ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH GUADELOUPE AS A STATIONARY 
FRONT. MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 160 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 23N. WEAKER CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM 
WEST OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 23N. FURTHERMORE...A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS LOCATED WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...ALONG 30N50W 25N55W 
22N62W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY THE SAME DEEP 
LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK CONVECTION IS 
FOUND WITHING 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...WITH 
THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE NEAR 27N24W. FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO OVER 
THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 55W...FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS SLOWLY ENTERING THIS REGION. LOOK FOR 
THE FRONT TO START MOVING EASTWARD AT A FASTER PACE...BECOMING A 
COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA