000
AXNT20 KNHC 080547
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST MON MAR 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE 
NEAR 7N12W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W TO THE 
NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ49W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ 
FROM 18W TO 32W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR 
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE 
STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE IS MARKED BY A 1024 SURFACE HIGH OVER THE 
NORTHEAST BASIN NEAR 28N85W. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT 
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TYPE OF FLOW IS 
BANKING SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES 
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE 
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...WHILE THE NEXT DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE 
NORTHWEST BASIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
THROUGH ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS  
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 
13N71W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS 
CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. 
THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO 
RICO...ANGUILLA...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MARINE AND SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN SHOW NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW 
ANYWHERE WEST OF THE FRONT...AND EASTERLY FLOW ELSEWHERE EAST OF 
THE FRONT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN BASIN IS 
BANKING SOME LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ALONG 60 NM OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN 
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT 
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS SWINGING OVER THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT 
ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N43W...EXTENDING 
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 24N52W INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH ANTIGUA 
AND BARBUDA. SATELLITE INFRA-RED DATA SHOWS MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 22N. WEAKER CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 150 NM WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF 22N. 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
ATLANTIC...WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CANARY 
ISLANDS NEAR 28N26W. FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO OVER THE FAR WESTERN 
ATLANTIC WEST OF 57W...FROM A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
THAT IS SLOWLY ENTERING THIS REGION. LOOK FOR THE STATIONARY 
FRONT TO START TO MOVE EASTWARD AT A FASTER PACE...BECOMING A 
COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA