000
AXNT20 KNHC 072357
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SUN MAR 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 4N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 36W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE ITCZ FROM 14W-31W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS 
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA BY A 1026 MB HIGH RESULTING IN 
OVERALL FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR THE E GULF. THIS 
RIDGE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT 
EXTENDS FROM THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 
WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO STREAM 
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE BASIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE...E TO SE WINDS CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE AND ARE 
PROVIDING FOR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
OVER THE W GULF WATERS N OF 22N W OF 91W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
BEGIN TO SLIDE E TONIGHT ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO 
SPREAD OVER THE W GULF MON NIGHT THROUGH WED WITH THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE 
NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE N LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W THEN 
ALONG 14N70W TO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 15N73W AND A SURFACE 
TROUGH CONTINUING S TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. 
CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF AND MOISTURE 
OVERRIDING THE FRONT/TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 13N74W OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 
18N65W. AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...THE 
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD 
ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO S OF 14N 
W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA 
RICA. THIS LOW/FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY BROAD UPPER TROUGH 
WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS ALONG 70W TO 12N. N TO NE SURFACE FLOW 
AND DRY STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS 
THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SE SURFACE FLOW 
DOMINATES THE REGION SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IS PROVIDING 
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER SE OF A LINE FROM GUADELOUPE TO THE ABC 
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND 
SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. THE LEADING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION 
NEAR 32N37W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 24N50W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN 
OVER THE N LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 300/400 NM NW OF THIS FRONT. THE SECONDARY FRONT IS A 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N51W TO 26N71W 
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL INTO E 
ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB 
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N23W AND 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED NEAR 20N35W EXTENDING AN 
AXIS NNE TO BEYOND 32N20W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE