000 AXNT20 KNHC 071749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN MAR 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N12W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 8W-15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS AND MID-ATLC STATES RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ALONG 93W. WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE BASIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...E TO SE WINDS CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE AND ARE PROVIDING FOR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF WATERS N OF 25N W OF 95W. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER ANGUILLA THEN ALONG 17N66W 15N69W 13N74W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE FRONT TO THE NW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM SE...AND 300 NM NW OF THE FRONT N OF 14N...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND A MAJORITY OF HISPANIOLA. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE STALLED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO S OF 14N BETWEEN THE FRONT ALONG 75W AND 81W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY BROAD TROUGHING WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N68W TO 13N76W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...N-NE SURFACE FLOW AND DRY STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA CARIBBEAN SEA COAST. SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...SE SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES AND IS PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER SE OF A LINE FROM ANTIGUA TO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC AND SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE LEADING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N40W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 24N50W AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR ANGUILLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE AND 360 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE SECONDARY FRONT IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N55W TO 27N72W. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT...AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS AROUND 07/1042 UTC CONFIRMED MARGINALLY STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWING A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL NORTH AND EASTERN ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N24W AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN SURINAME NEAR 06N56W TO BEYOND 32N30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN