000 AXNT20 KNHC 071148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN MAR 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W TO THE NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ50W. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA. A SMALL AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W AND 29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG AND ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER MOST OF EASTERN CONUS...WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...REACHING SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TYPE OF FLOW IS BANKING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTH COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR BARRANQUILLA. THIS FRONT IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 18N63W 16N69W 11N75W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF 16N WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. DUE TO THE CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO...ANGUILLA...AND THE US/VIRGIN ISLANDS...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER SATURATED TERRAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEST OF THE FRONT...WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN IS BANKING SOME LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS SWINGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 55W FROM 20N TO 30N. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N41W EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 25N50W INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. SATELLITE INFRA-RED DATA SHOWS MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF 25N. WEAKER CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF 25N. FURTHERMORE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...ALONG 31N50W 26N56W 22N65W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY THE SAME DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHING 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ALL OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE OF AIR NEAR 27N25W. AS THE UPPERL LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC GAINS STRENHGT...LOOK FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MERGE AND BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD AT A FASTER PACE...BECOMING A COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA