000
AXNT20 KNHC 070550
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SUN MAR 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0550 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 
5N10W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 1N30W EQ40W TO THE 
NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1S46W. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 270 NM OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA. WEAK CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG AND ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER MOST OF 
EASTERN CONUS...WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES...REACHING SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS 
FEATURE CONTINUES TO HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF THE 
GULF. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS 
THE REGION. THIS TYPE OF FLOW IS BANKING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND ALONG THE 
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. COMPUTER MODELS 
FORECAST FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN CONTINUING 
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST 
GULF WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
THROUGH THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF 
COLOMBIA NEAR BARRANQUILLA. THIS FRONT IS ANALYZED AS A 
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 18N64W 16N70W 11N75W. THIS FRONT IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF 16N WITHIN 100 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. DUE TO THE CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER 
PUERTO RICO AND THE US/VIRGIN ISLANDS...FLASH FLOODING AND 
MUDSLIDES MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER SATURATED TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
WEST OF THE FRONT...WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN IS 
BANKING SOME LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE 
MOUNTAINS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC...WEST 
OF 60W FROM 20N TO 30N. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A NEAR STATIONARY 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W 
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N50W INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS. SATELLITE INFRA-RED DATA SHOWS MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF 
22N. WEAKER CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE STATIONARY 
FRONT SOUTH OF 22N. FURTHERMORE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED 
WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...ALONG 30N54W 25N62W 21N72W. THIS 
SURFACE FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY THE SAME DEEP LAYERED TROUGH 
OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHING 
40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ALL OF THE EASTERN 
ATLANTIC...WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE OF AIR NEAR 26N28W. 
LOOK FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUE TO 
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA