000 AXNT20 KNHC 052348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI MAR 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N09W 2N30W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-40W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES E OF 93W...WHILE W OF 93W BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND THE BEGINNINGS OF E-SE RETURN FLOW ARE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD EAST OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SE NEW MEXICO. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY THURSDAY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE E PACIFIC WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS FAR NW PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W TO 16N71W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 14N73W TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM NW...AND 60 NM SE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CONVERGENT N-NE WINDS N OF 17N W OF 75W TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 20N74W TO 16N80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NW WHILE SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SE CARIBBEAN IS ALSO UNDER GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AS MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED 977 MB LOW S-SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N43W. THE FRONT CONTINUES SW ALONG 28N50W TO 25N57W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE NW TIP OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM NW OF THE FRONT...WHILE POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 33W TO THE FRONT. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXTEND FARTHER W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 32N60W TO 20N74W SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 10N56W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N56W TO BEYOND 32N35W AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N37W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NW AFRICA TO SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG THE WESTERN MOROCCO COAST FROM 32N09W TO 28N13W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF 14W OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN