000
AXNT20 KNHC 051145
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST FRI MAR 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS LOCATED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 
6.5N11W WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 2.5N40W TO THE NORTHEAST 
BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 23W AND 40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG AND ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE CENTRAL 
CONUS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO HAVE A STRONG 
INFLUENCE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF...SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE BRINGING DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS 
ACROSS THE GULF SHOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH BASIN...COVERING MUST OF THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTH OF 22N...AND THE WESTERN BASIN SOUTH OF 
26N WEST OF 95W. FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ARE LOCATED OVER THIS 
AREA. COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS 
THE BASIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE NEXT 
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE 
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE 
MONA PASSAGE...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 18N68W 16N71W 13N75W 8N77W. 
SATELLITE INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOSE UPPER 
LEVEL SUPPORT...AND THEREFORE THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE 
LESS CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW 
SCATTER SHOWERS REMAINING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
INDICATE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH 
OF 12N WEST OF 80W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY FAIR 
WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING FAIR WEATHER 
TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS 
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 40W FROM 15N 
TO 40N. THUS...DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 15W AND 55W. 
OUTSIDE THIS REGION...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
THROUGH 32N45W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N56W BECOMING 
STATIONARY AT 22N62W ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH THE 
MONA PASSAGE. SATELLITE INFRA-RED DATA SHOWS MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF 26N...AND 
WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
STATIONARY OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER 
LEVEL LONGWAVE ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. ALSO...THE TAIL END 
OF A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...LEAVING  
SCATTER SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. LOOK FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA