000
AXNT20 KNHC 050542
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST FRI MAR 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE 
NEAR 7N12W WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 2.5N30W 2N40W TO THE NORTHEAST 
BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 28W AND 38W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
BRINGING DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE 
SOUTH BASIN...COVERING MUST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTH OF 
21N...AND THE WESTERN BASIN SOUTH OF 26N WEST OF 94W. FOG AND 
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ARE LOCATED OVER THIS AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH IS 
FORECAST TO HOLD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT 
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE 
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE 
MONA PASSAGE...CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
TO THE COAST OF PANAMA ALONG 18N68W 15N74W 10N79W. SATELLITE 
INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOSE UPPER LEVEL 
SUPPORT...AND THEREFORE THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS 
CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW 
SCATTER SHOWERS REMAINING NEAR THE FRONT. OTHER OBSERVATIONS 
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INDICATE LOW STRATUS CLOUDINESS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 80W. ELSEWHERE 
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF AN UPPER DRY SUBSIDENT AIR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN THE DISCUSSION 
AREA IS INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTING A SURFACE 
1022 MB HIGH NEAR 23N39W. THUS...FAIR WEATHER IS SEEN ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 58W. 
OUTSIDE THIS REGION...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
THROUGH 32N47W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N55W 22N61W 19N68W. 
SATELLITE INFRA-RED DATA SHOWS MODERATE CONVECTION 90 NM EAST OF 
THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N...AND WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 
NM WEST OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 27N. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN 
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE TAIL END 
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS INTO 
THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST ALONG 32N12W 28N14W 25N18W. SCATTER 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. LOOK FOR THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH 
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA