000
AXNT20 KNHC 041715
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST THU MAR 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1630 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 3N20W 
3N30W 2N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 4N52W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 15W-25W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE N ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER NRN 
MISSOURI. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AROUND THE RIDGE. 
HOWEVER...20 KT WINDS ARE STILL NOTED ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE SRN HALF OF THE BASIN...WITH FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE 
COVERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPING VISIBILITY LOW. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA DRAWING 
SOME E PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER NRN MEXICO AND INTO THE WRN GULF 
SUPPORTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO PERSIST 
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING 
CONDITIONS FAIR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
TODAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE ERN 
TIP OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W TO 16N73W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 
PANAMA ALONG 13N77W 9N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF 
THE AXIS N OF 17N...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS S OF 15N. 
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE HAZY CONDITIONS WITH 
DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 81W S OF 17N...AND 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 
78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR 
WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N 
OF ERN SOUTH AMERICA WITH AXIS ALONG 50W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO 
REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS 
BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE W ATLC TODAY. AT THE 
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 976 MB LOW OFF THE NEW 
ENGLAND COAST S OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 32N56W ALONG 24N62W TO THE ERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 
19N69W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N...WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT 
ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 27N WITHIN 240 NM E 
OF THE FRONT...AND W OF THE FRONT TO 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
ALONG 75W SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. FARTHER E...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 50W SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 
1020 MB HIGH NEAR 22N39W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROTRUDES 
INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N21W 28N23W 25N28W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS 
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES TO 
THE CANARY ISLANDS ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 4N31W. 
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO ENHANCING THE AREA OF CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON