000 AXNT20 KNHC 032354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED MAR 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N09W 4N27W 3N36W 4N44W THEN TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-22W AND BETWEEN 24W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AIR ALOFT AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. NW WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF E OF 95W...MAINTAINING A COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MAINLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE GULF BASIN AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WELL NE OF THE REGION OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N96W THAT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE MAIN FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NICARAGUA/ COSTA RICA BORDER NEAR 11N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE SECOND FRONT...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT...DEPICTS A SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR AS NOTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS EARLIER ASCAT PASSES. THIS SECONDARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W CONTINUING SW TO 20N83W. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERCAST STRATUS CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 20N AND W OF 82W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF COASTAL NICARAGUA... HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. BOTH OF THESE FRONTS ARE SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N SURINAME NEAR 9N56W WITH AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 10N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A 982 MB LOW OFF THE MID-ATLC U.S. COAST. THE MAIN FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N64W ALONG 25N68W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM WEST OF THE ENTIRE FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. N OF 25N W OF 53W...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. EAST OF THE MAIN FRONT...THE SECOND FRONT... INDICATING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS...ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N70W AND EXTENDS ALONG 25N75W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THEN TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDINESS ARE OBSERVED BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 53W SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N46W. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROTRUDES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N29W 27N32W TO 23N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA N OF 26N W OF 21W TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 30W. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N21W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN