000 AXNT20 KNHC 022345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N30W 3N42W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-28W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 28W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR CARDENAS. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W SW TO NEAR 24N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY N OF 24N E OF 88W AND CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY E-NE THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS LARGELY THE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS HELPING TO DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN THE 994 MB LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF E OF 92W. THIS AREA OF NORTHERLY WINDS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N82W CONTINUING SW ALONG 20N84W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N89W. W TO NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 6N49W TO 10N60W THEN WESTWARD ALONG 11N ACROSS COSTA RICA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE E OF 80W. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 994 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N78W WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N78W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING N OF 27N W OF 72W TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NE AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE SE CONUS AND A LARGE PORTION OF THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 64W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N63W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N44W TO 22N52W BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-28N W OF 32W TO THE COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING LARGELY REMAINING N OF 33N. ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N28W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MOROCCO NEAR 28N11W TO S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N17W. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN