000 AXNT20 KNHC 021736 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE MAR 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W ALONG 5N20W 4N30W 4N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 14W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 23W-30W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 32W-36W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 36W-40W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 47W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A SWATH OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS S FLORIDA FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO KEY WEST TO WRN CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1001 MB LOW HAS MOVED INTO SW GEORGIA NEAR 31N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW JUST E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ALONG 30N84W 24N84W ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS E OF THIS FRONT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM E OF TALLAHASSEE ALONG N FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED W OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 27N88W 24N93W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES COVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS TEXAS AND MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER N ALABAMA DOWN THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE EWD OUT OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE WRN TIP OF CUBA TO BELIZE ALONG 22N85W 17N88W. W TO NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS NRN HISPANIOLA WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 68W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE NW AREA TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SWATH OF STRONG STORMS EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 76W-79W ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT ACROSS N FLORIDA ALONG 31N EXTENDS OVER THE ATLC WATERS TO 73W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED N OF 27N W OF 78W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ALONG 68W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 26N66W. A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A 978 MB OCCLUDED LOW S OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W ALONG 24N50W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO S OF NEWFOUNDLAND. ACROSS THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N30W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROTRUDES INTO THE RIDGE EXTENDING E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N11W 24N16W DISSIPATING TO 20N27W. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL TO E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON