000 AXNT20 KNHC 012354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON MAR 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N30W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 33W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N93W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N94W TO 20N95W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EASTWARD ACROSS SE LOUISIANA TO 30N86W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT MAINLY N OF 22N WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA. WRAP AROUND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS EAST TEXAS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 94W. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NE GULF WATERS AND ALSO PROVIDE A LARGE AREA OF NW TO N WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING... CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND E OF 84W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH BISECTS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT REACHES ACROSS NW PUERTO RICO AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 18N67W 15N75W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. CONVERGENT NE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 150 NM WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 15N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER MODERATELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUESDAY MORNING AND USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF NW WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN OCCLUDED 972 MB LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W CONTINUING SW ALONG 25N55W TO 23N58W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NW PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 35N49W TO 24N59W THAT SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ALOFT WEST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AS A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W. FARTHER EAST...A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N19W AND EXTENDS S TO 26N21W THEN WSW TO NEAR 23N30W THEN BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TO 23N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 40W SUPPORTING A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N38W ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 34N20W TO 22N14W WHICH SUPPORTS THE FRONT ACROSS THE NE ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN