000
AXNT20 KNHC 011722
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST MON MAR 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 5N20W 
4N30W 3N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2N52W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 24W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 31W-33W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 38W-41W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF THE 
COAST OF TEXAS CURRENTLY NEAR 28N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S 
FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N95W TO S OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. A 
WARM FRONT LINES THE NW GULF FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 28N90W TO 
26N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO THE N ACROSS FAR E TEXAS AND 
LOUISIANA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. THE 
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN 
CENTRAL TEXAS AND MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS 
UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS DOWN THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE W 
GULF STATES. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER COVER MUCH OF THE 
REMAINING AREA INCLUDING FLORIDA AND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF 
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO 
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY. GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 24 HRS IN THE CENTRAL GULF AS 
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT BISECTS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING 
FROM A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT REACHES ACROSS ERN 
HISPANIOLA BECOMING DISSIPATING JUST S OF HISPANIOLA TO THE 
COAST OF PANAMA ALONG 18N71W 14N76W 9N79W. MOST OF THE SHOWER 
ACTIVITY WITH THIS FRONT HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS NRN HISPANIOLA N OF 19N BETWEEN 
68W-74W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN 
IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER MODERATE DRY AIR 
AND SUBSIDENCE WITH ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO  
DISSIPATE AS A SECOND COLD FRONT REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING 
FROM A DEEPENED AND OCCLUDED 966 MB LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE 
FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W CONTINUING SW ALONG 
22N60W TO ERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W  AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS 
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE 
FRONT N OF 23N TO 49W...AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS S OF 23N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE W 
ATLC ALONG 65W SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRY AIR AND 
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. FARTHER E...A SURFACE 
RIDGE COVERS THE ERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH 
NEAR 29N40W. HOWEVER...A SECOND COLD FRONT PROTRUDES INTO THE 
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 993 MB LOW SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N24W 
ALONG 31N22W 26N28W 23N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM 
OF THE FRONT...AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 17W-21W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 42W 
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E 
ATLC...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E ATLC 
EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE 
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUPPORTING THE FRONT ACROSS THE ERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON