000
AXNT20 KNHC 011141
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST MON MAR 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE LIBERIA/SIERRA LEONE COAST TO 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 
1S53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 4N13W 3N23W 2N30W 1N40W 3N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS NEAR 32N101W. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THIS CENTER INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 27N102W.
A SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY ACCOMPANIES THE MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN MORE OR LESS THE SAME AREA. A SURFACE
TROUGH RUNS THE LENGTH OF THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
A SECOND AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH
HAS FORMED FROM 28N95W IN THE WATERS OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TO 23N98W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N82W 24N87W
19N91W...FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS...WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE
NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 180 NM TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO
15 FEET.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 27N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 
19N70W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO 
DISSIPATE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO 14N76W AND THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N79W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W AT THE COAST OF 
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA
TO 25N71W...ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...INTO THE NORTH-
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N82W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N60W AND BEYOND 19N70W
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N42W
24N60W 19N72W...MEANING IN POSSIBLY IN AND TO THE NORTH OF HAITI 
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 36N25W TO 27N26W...AND TO 
13N21W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N25W TO 27N30W AND 25N39W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT