000 AXNT20 KNHC 282333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N9W ALONG 4N15W 3N25W 3N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-16W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. COOL TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 93W ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTING THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE NRN GULF SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. SELY RETURN FLOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY MON AND RACE ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W CROSSING FAR E JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FRONT HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN E OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN HISPANIOLA N OF 19N TO 70W...AND ALONG THE FRONT AXIS S OF 13N. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ALSO AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM 16N74W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE UNITED STATES TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STABLE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BUILD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL AND DISSIPATE BY MON NIGHT AS A SECOND COLD FRONT REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO YESTERDAY IS NOW ACROSS THE SW N ATLC EXTENDING FROM A DEEPENED 986 MB LOW NEAR 36N64W. THE FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N62W CONTINUING SW ALONG 25N67W TO TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N73W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N TO 60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 150 NM...AS WELL AS N OF 26N TO 54W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE CONUS ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 30N48W...AND A 1019 MB HIGH 26N26W. HOWEVER...A SECOND COLD FRONT PROTRUDES INTO THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 999 MB LOW NEAR 26N33W ALONG 31N34W 27N42W 27N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 53W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON